It turns out even small pieces of luck—like being born in January versus December—can shape the entire path of a person’s life. Just look at how youth sports reward the oldest kids in the age group. They're bigger, more coordinated, and more likely to get picked for the elite teams. From there, it snowballs. More attention, more coaching, more practice. Years later, they’re the ones standing on the Olympic podium or signing pro contracts, while the others faded into obscurity before puberty even ended.

The video illustrates this with a simulation that mirrors real-world selection processes—like NASA choosing astronauts. Even when skill plays a dominant role, that sliver of randomness still tips the scale. In one version, a 5% element of luck determines who makes the final cut. And yet, when you look at the final lineup, it’s clear that being excellent wasn’t enough. Being excellent and lucky? That’s the real formula.

There’s another kind of invisible lottery too—where you were born. Growing up in a stable, wealthy country? That alone gives you a massive leg up over someone equally talented born in chaos or poverty. And yet, we rarely give luck credit for those starting conditions. We like the story where we earned everything. It’s neater. Feels better. But it’s not entirely true.

Hard work matters. Discipline matters. But outcomes aren't always fair or proportional. That’s what makes it all so complicated—and why a bit more humility and perspective might not be such a bad thing.